Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The Reality of Real Change

This isn't really a new topic, but one I feel I must rehash upon as it's been some time since I covered it. I've noticed several comments in response on Twitter to my previous post. Occupy Calgary said "It doesn't say what we should do though!". You're right, it doesn't.

There is a reason it doesn't, and that reason as I've mentioned time and time again on this blog is that "who am I to tell you what to do about a given problem?". This differs greatly from pointing out that a strategy currently in use has failed. Call it "constructive criticism".

This expectation of a post which describes a problem always having to offer a solution is quite common in our society. Usually in a post formatted in this way the solution offered is half-baked and shallow with an "everyone lived happily ever after" ending. That's not what I offer here, everyone isn't going to be living happily ever-after, the problems we face are deep and systemic and require open, transparent discussion to even begin formulating a plan to address them. We need to be honest about the situation, and what's possible. It's not that there are not solutions, it's that the required solutions are going to represent a very different way of life. I recently wrote:
If the problem we're trying to solve is "how do we make things like they were before 2008?" - there is no solution. That era of growth was largely based on fraud, it's never coming back. We can either look forward and seriously decide what sort of system we do want, or we can claw on to the revisionist history of returns seemingly coming out of thin air. They were, so what are we going to do about it?
The one thing I can tell you though, Canadians, is we're going to need a lot more courage to do whatever it is we eventually decide to do. I don't know what the actual solution is, and nobody who is honest does either. What's important though is we acknowledge how dire the situation actually is, how far down the rabbit hole we are. Understanding our position in the situation will help us decide where our time is best spent. Is our time best spent fighting FIPA with an email campaign we all know will be ignored? One of the sad truths is, the longer we wait to retake our national sovereignty, the harder it's going to be. Things never should have been allowed to go as far as they already have, but now that they have Canadians must understand that we don't have all the time in the world. Most of our sovereignty has already been taken from us and as a result any attempt to fix it is going to be very painful. We waited too long. Email campaigns might have worked, back when we still had some form of a democracy, but not today. We must accept that it's been hijacked by a global governance cartel.

Canadians must be willing to step out of their comfortable lifestyles before they are pulled out of them by force. This starts (as that scene in the network describes) by getting mad:


I'm not talking about "I'm going to send an angry letter" mad, I'm talking about "I've had enough of this shit!" mad. You've got to say "I'm a human being damn it! My life has value!". You getting me? You've got to take risks. Look around the world, in almost every other country.. the people are mad! Riots in China. All around the world, people are getting mad and are expressing it. Sometimes in good ways, some times in bad ways, but I can tell you this - nobody in China is writing automated emails to their government, they already know nobody is listening. Nobody in Greece is writing letters to their government, because they all know nobody is listening. Nobody is listening, folks!

The real key to change, is to change our world-view about what a solution entails. To change our world-view about who is capable of doing it. The people in power? No. You, me, your dog - we're capable, but it's going to take a lot of hard work and a lot of risk. You can not oppose the system from the safety that system offers. You need to take the lead, no one else is going to do it for you. We're all leaders, it's the belief someone else has to approve or O.K. our ideas which holds us back. As the old saying goes, "when the student is ready, the teacher appears".

Further Reading: Subservient Syndrome

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

An Open Letter to Canadians: 'We're not in Kansas anymore'

The other night, I saw a great documentary on the exploitative economics known as globalization. I really must recommend you watch it, I've made it available down below and it's also available (surprisingly) on NetFlix.

What I found unique about this particular documentary is it actually goes to the people globalization is supposedly helping and interviews them. It follows the "big players" as they invest in "emerging markets" which one of the players says sounds a lot better than "third world countries". Emerging markets is a globalist marketing term, nothing more.

We love to tell ourselves here in the western nations that the globalization centered policies which are destroying our own middle-class economy is creating one somewhere else. This video should serve to debunk that myth which has been so heavily ingrained in modern propaganda.

Just now, I tweeted this video and tagged it with #fipa, and in response.. I got this:
Do U know abt email campaign against FIPA? Fill Harper's email Nov 1st 2-4PM.
Yes I did, and no I don't care. Why? Because we're not in Kansas anymore kiddies!

Flaherty flooded with complaints about Bill C-38

I don't know if any of you have noticed this, but email campaigns, protests, etc... don't work anymore! Why bother flooding Harper's email with your complaints? You think he cares? Do you think he even reads it? Do you think anything is going to happen this time other than an under-published report months down the road saying he got them? Kids, Harper and his band of global governance thugs stomped on your rights as Canadian citizens at G20 in 2010, and following the meeting told you all we would be giving up our sovereignty to the G20. His intentions have been clear this entire time! Yet, we continue to pretend as though it isn't. We pretend as though "if they only knew how we really felt" - they would act differently! NO! The propaganda techniques in play are in play to convince Canadians to sign on to something the government is aware is deeply unpopular. They already know!

When I first called attention to the Asian realignment, a key indicator was when Harper met with the Chinese propaganda chief. The propaganda chief!!! He's not meeting with the Chinese propaganda chief for tips on how to be more "transparent" with Canadians or for tips on how to better tell you the truth, or listen. This is about manipulating public opinion from "opposed" to "tolerant" - nothing more.

How long are we going to pretend this is some kid's game? We're under attack Canada - while we're playing democracy, they're playing dirty war. Email campaigns? Give your heads a shake. This situation is serious, if all you can do about it is fire off an automated email: you deserve what you get.

Canadian Trends: The Reality of Real Change



Let's Make Money - Free Trade and Globalization



Into the Fire - G20 and the systemic destruction of rights


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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Canada's 'October Surprise'

Vrooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom.

In no time at all Canada's financial situation has quickly worsened. Naturally, though, everything is going according to plan:

Flaherty says falling revenues won't derail deficit plan

Yea, who needs revenue anyway?

Food banks struggle to keep up with increasing demand 

See? Demand is soaring, business is live and well.

Of course, I am being facetious. Nothing has improved, we've in fact been in this situation the entire time we've been boasting about how amazing our own "recovery" appeared to be. The whole time however it's simply been a series of cheap parlor tricks and meaningless banking policy. As a great article on Europe I read today concluded:
Meanwhile, unemployment is rising and growth is contracting. Fixing rates was the easy part. It required a promise. Fixing the real economy is the hard part. It requires real money.
Real money, in other words: real production. There will never be enough real production to clear off the accumulated debts however. (Real) GDP is closely tied to energy production - oil production - and even if we produced the Trillion or so remaining barrels of oil in a timely and cheap manor we (the planet) could never create enough wealth to repay the debts. But hey, why should that factor into our strategy?

Alberta will be Canada’s economic growth engine for next decade: CIBC report: Real GDP growth forecast to average 3.3% between 2012-2022

Currently, Alberta and Ottawa have a lot in common. Just as Flaherty claims that revenue isn't going to impact their financial plans - Alison Redford has the same opinion.
Speaking Wednesday at a conference of the province’s municipal politicians – whose cities and towns rely on the province for hundreds of millions in infrastructure transfers – Alison Redford said the growing deficit wouldn’t mean major changes to the current budget, suggesting the government is banking instead on trimming spending through “in-year savings” and waiting for a revenue rebound.
Indeed, why plan budgets and expenses and information around what-is, when it could instead be planned around what you want it to be? Seems like sound advice from the so-called fiscally superior conservatives. So don't worry everyone, everything is ok. It's all going to plan.

Finance official questions link between cooling housing market, mortgage rules 

I've been questioning the so-called link for some time on this blog. My opinion is that these rules had no effect at all and the collapsing markets are happening naturally despite the rules. again, it's all about confidence. As long as they can convince the population that everything is going according to plan the market will act as if that's the case. It's when people realize that there is a disconnect between what's being said and the in-your-face reality that the floodgates open.

Canadian economy stalls in August as surprising weakness hits most sectors

The only reason anyone would be "surprised" by this realization is that they were lulled into a false sense of security in Canada's "stable, secure, banking sector". Why is this collapsing? Europe's getting worse, China's getting worse, Japan's getting worse. The U.S.? Well they are spending trillions to hold their military positions, banking on expensive energy, spending billions to produce a minimal amount of jobs indenturing multiple generations in the process while their cities literally fall apart.

Cracks are starting to show all over the place and our politicians are gambling on the market and passing that off as "a plan". Today, even with Sandy, oil is only up to $86 / barrel. I don't know about you, but when someone tells me "falling revenue" isn't going to affect their financial plans, it tells me there is no plan - only a failed ideology.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Why are you reading this?

No, really, why? If you're reading my blog you probably already have an idea WTF is happening around the world, and what you need to do about it to protect yourself and your family. Why am I not reading your blog?

this is me Halloween (weekend) night. no, really.
You'll have to forgive me, I was at a Halloween party tonight, it's 07:10 and I've been drinking. I feel I can be candid, because quite frankly it's my blog and I can. Freedom! I love it! don't you?

I haven't done a late night ramble in quite awhile. Typically, when I write a post I've spent a good amount of time figuring out what I want to say and linking the various topics in a somewhat seamless manor. I don't always succeed, seriously, writing is not my strong point. However, I feel it is necessary to do my part. Are you doing yours?

If you know the information on my blog, then why read it? Make your own blog. Propagate the information. Do a better job than I am doing. Copy my posts if you want, permission can be found here.

Late night rambles are enjoyable, I just write and get what's on my mind on to the virtual paper that is Blogger with no thought towards whether it makes sense or not, or whether or not people will actually care.

That's whats great about freedom! Personal decision, and direction. These things unto themselves don't deliver success but they do allow you to sit back at the end of the day and feel satisfied that you've done your best. Maybe you succeed and maybe you don't, but what matters is that it's you. Isn't it? You could stop reading this blog now, start your own, and speak the truths you all know are in your hearts. Or maybe you won't. It's really up to you isn't it? That's what it's all about.

At the end of the day, I choose to do what I do because I choose to do it. That's really all we can ask from life, let the cards fall where they may.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Oh Canadian Banks

Canadian banks are in the news again...

Royal Bank subpoenaed in LIBOR probe
Six Canadian banks on review for Moody’s downgrade
Canadian banks snapping up consumer loans

The last entry there is by far the most interesting, when placed in context with the other two:
So to keep their loan books getting fatter, the banks are essentially buying loans made by other companies — or at least, that’s one way to look at the Ally and Target deals.
Can we please please please dispense with the myth that our economy is somehow superior to the other western nations? That somehow we're more stable? in a better position? Is our economic self-congratulating feedback loop not apparent yet?

For the last four years Europe has continued to worsen and yet rosy forecasts have been given by our leaders as though Europe will just magically get better. When those forecasts don't work out? Well, it's the "global economy's fault". They've been predicting great growth for years and it's never materialized and somehow that's the "global economy's fault" or "Europe's fault".

Now, I'm no expert, but it seems to me it's a lot easier to design policy around factual forecasts than it is to design policy around forecasts that are often proved to be completely wrong.

This overly rosy forecasting habit is prevalent everywhere, recently Zero Hedge caught a QA with the IMF's Lagarde in which she was directly confronted on the IMF's complete lack of ability to forecast upcoming economic conditions under their own policies. The short video presented in that link is quite humorous, you should really check it out.

So what ever happened to our "strong, stable, banking sector"? It never really existed it just wasn't our turn yet. A strong stable banking sector would see the problems in Europe coming a mile away and what's more, a strong stable banking system would have nothing to fear of Canadians being aware of a global depression. It's a confidence game and strong, stable, banking systems have no need for that.

Oh Canada Movie

Have a good weekend everyone.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

A Recipe for Riots

I came across a great article last night on the long term outlook for Generation Y. I really must suggest you all give it a read, however I feel that the author stops short of describing the true situation.

The authors make a good case and comprehensive summary of the problems facing what they coin "generation nixed", however a bias towards civil sanity persists throughout. The authors describe the future of hopelessness as if "generation nixed" is simply going to go along with it. No mention is made of the fact "generation nixed" just might stand up for itself, as has been happening in austerity protests world-wide, as has been happening with the anonymous activist group, or as has been happening with student protests. Just think, that's all happening right now, today, in the present. What do you think life will be like in 10 years and do you all really think that an entire generation which has had all of their prosperity taken from them is just going to stand by and let it happen?

On September 7th, 2011, I made a bold statement:
The response from the system is becoming obvious. A campaign against western youth is well underway. The system knows we are long overdue for a generational revolution, and it just doesn't want to let go. It'll come none-the-less though, it's inevitable. Just as civil unrest has spread like wildfire in Europe and the Arab nations, it will be here too. One day in your streets you will see events like this for yourself. They are gearing up for a war against the generation they've stolen everything from. They know most of us will figure it out one day, and when that day comes the propaganda against them will be in full effect.
Was I wrong? Think about everything that has happened since then, and you can damn well bet that's just the first stage of a very long period of ever escalating civil unrest.

What I don't think the previous generations understand is that "generation nixed" has the power and numbers to "nix" the whole damn system. Complete shutdowns of Greece provide an insight into the despotic future we're heading into. The previous generations may think they have secure pensions at 65, secure jobs, etc. The reality? None of that stuff works when a shutdown is happening. Oh, wow, you have first class tickets for your fancy vacation? That's nice, better hope the air traffic controllers show up to work then, hadn't you? Does your bank account rely on electricity? How about your A.T.M.s?

It's not enough that it is simply recognized that the younger generations face an uphill impossible battle. The previous generations must take responsibility for the train wreck economy they've left the younger generations with.

Canadian Trends: The Real Generational Time-Bomb Isn't in Pensions - May 7th, 2012

Predictably, in the comments of the article, the Baby Boomer's refute the "harder" life youth today face. Guess what, Boomers, I got news for you. It *IS* harder.
  • 7 Billion people now populate the world, and it grows exponentially everyday.
  • The current generation is in a race for lower wages and in competition with Temporary Foreign Workers (TFWs). Oh, those TFW's are needed you say? Well my girlfriend's Oilsands employer just laid off a whole crap load of Canadian employees weeks after hiring Temporary Foreign Workers.
  • Businesses owned by Baby Boomers continue looking for new ways to rob us of our benefits. Instead of hiring full time many simply hire more part times, or some just fill "temporary" positions not allowing us to actually be employed by the company thus denying any benefits that would come from that.
  • High Frequency Trading dominates the markets, effectively making real investments and returns a losing proposition and the resources for entry are far beyond those that youth typically have.
  • Low Interest Rates prevent any ability to save. If I put money away in the bank, it simply degrades in comparison to inflation. Not spending money is losing money in the modern day. Maybe the Baby Boomers don't notice this as they have the money to enter the market and gamble.
source: businessinsider.com
  •  Energy, Housing, Food are all sky high in comparison while wages have barely gone anywhere in 30 years. We start at a lower point, with less job security, and much MUCH more turnover.
I could go on and on. But no, none of these facts really exist in the Boomer's minds. In their minds, the younger generations are all lazy and want everything handed to them. Tell you what, Boomers, we won't ask the government for a single god damned fucking thing - if you take full responsibility to repay the debts your generation has accumulated. Don't look to us for your bailouts - and just remember, one day you're going to need us to keep your lives plush. You'll grow old and need a home, but guess what? You'll have left the next generation with so much debt and poverty that help won't be coming. Your general attitudes are "every man for himself", and that's exactly what you're going to get. Just watch.


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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Friday, October 26, 2012

There's a new oil bonanza, but it comes at a price

Earlier in the week the U.S.'s bursting shale Oil industry made headlines worldwide announcing that the U.S. is set to become the world's top producer of oil and now on the heels of that announcement, Utah has approved the first oilsands operation in the U.S..

Yes, so the U.S. is set to become the world's top producer, but of heavy oil and shale oil. Expensive oil. I always find it interesting how articles on our energy future stick all the information about costs at the end. In the article on the U.S. becoming the top producer of oil, you don't see anything about what the permanent reality and cost of this new energy is going to be until you reach the bottom of the article:
But Saudi oil is cheap to tap, while the methods needed to tap U.S. oil are very expensive. If the price of oil falls below $75 per barrel, drillers in the U.S. will almost certainly begin to cut back.
This statement is an interesting contrast to a statement earlier in the article: 
The increase in production hasn't translated to cheaper gasoline at the pump, and prices are expected to stay high relatively high for the next few years because of growing demand for oil in developing nations and political instability in the Middle East and North Africa. Still, producing more oil domestically, and importing less, gives the economy a significant boost.
The next few years? You think energy is going to be cheaper in a few years when the growing methods will fall apart if oil falls below $75 / barrel? 
"Drivers will have to pay high prices, sure, but at least they'll have a job," Verleger says.
Ya, that's what I thought. This is the elephant in the room that nobody wants to talk about.

The affordability of these new methods of extraction rely completely on the exponential rise of oil prices, and of course this doesn't even include the environmental, health, and infrastructure costs. Once you include everything, it's a losing proposition. It'll take Alberta returning to surplus to change my mind, and I don't anticipate that occurring so long as Alberta continues to pursue Oilsands as a source of revenue which simply amounts to nothing more than gambling on the market price of oil.

I've talked extensively about how Alberta has entered a downward debt spiral now that the exponential rise in oil prices is over. This exponential rise in oil prices which peaked in 2008 created a situation in which oil was being sold at a price more expensive than that which it was produced at and this was adopted as the model to use to predict future oil revenue. The Albertan government has been failing spectacularly at predicting revenue, and this is the reason. Everything the Alberta government set up was based on the assumption that oil prices would climb forever.

As we look to more and more extreme forms of oil extraction, the world economy will continue to destabilize. It's ironic the article makes mention of the Middle Eastern stability as some sort of temporary phenomenon when this instability is directly related to the U.S.'s energy pursuits.

I know some are going to point to this new oil production and say "see! there's no peak oil". The reality is though, this is peak oil. This is confirmation that the low hanging fruit has all been picked, the only energy left is highly intensive and extremely expensive. The return on investment will simply decline from here on out, and market volatility - even with manipulation - will worsen.

You have to look at this situation from the proper perspective: The U.S. is producing everything it's got at the same time as they lose favor around the world. There really is no other choice for them now as their imported supply becomes a growing target.

This isn't a new age of oil, it's the final act of the age of oil.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Paywalls: The last nail in mainstream media's coffin?

So the Globe and Mail has just put up a new paywall which has been a growing trend amongst news outlets in the last few years. I remember back in the 90s a common question during small talk was "The Sun or The Journal?", most people here in my hometown only received one and few received the Globe and Mail on top of it. Same went for the National Post. In other words, people usually had one choice of news outlet and trusted that this news outlet would deliver reports on everything they need to know about and internet based information was really limited to lame personal websites.

Today however, the news is a much different beast. There are hundreds of online news sites, some of which have only an online presence. The old 90's news outlet loyalty is all but gone with most people now not caring who provides the news so long as it's provided. On Twitter, I and many others, link news from a multitude of websites both foreign and domestic as the best way to really see what's happening is to go straight to the source. The media landscape has significantly changed and outlets basing their future on the old loyalty subscription model are going to find it dwindling.

From a practical standpoint, online news subscriptions I believe are doomed and antiquated. It's a lot easier for me when scanning the news to simply omit items from paywalled sites since most stories will be reported in non-paywalled  outlets anyway. Again, there's hundreds to choose from and usually a Google search of the paywalled headline will bring up a free version. It's certainly a lot easier than attempting to subscribe and track those subscriptions to the hundreds of websites I source. No single source I use is dependable or accurate enough to warrant a subscription - it's only by using all of them in aggregation that I am able to perform news analysis.

This idea of 1 subscription for 1 site is really what's going to cause this idea to fail. When it came to specialty news sites, like the Wall Street Journal or The Financial Times, subscriptions could be expected as these outlets still have a group of loyal readers; for many on Wall Street nothing other than the two will do. However, when it comes to standard news outlets they should be taking a cue from the online porn industry which long ago realized that with a market so plush with porn sites simply offering 1 site with a subscription isn't enough and so now most porn subscriptions grant access to a number of different sites all operating under the same "ring". If media websites want to have subscriptions then they either need to step up their game and earn the loyalty they think they deserve by reporting all of the news or they need to adopt the single payer gateway that porn rings have. I should be able to with a single subscription, subscribe to every paper put out in Canada in online form for a low monthly fee.

Mainstream media continues to lose ground to the growing web of alternative media, citizen journalists, and blogs. Blogs like this one which exist to distribute what I believe is important information, and not to make money. Blogs continue to expose the truths the mainstream medias won't touch, blogs sent people to cover the Bilderberg meeting, not mainstream news. Blogs were covering the first week of Occupy while the mainstream media under a blackout ignored it. Blogs were closely covering the gulf oil spill and Fukushima as governments played games and the media aided in the cover up. Russia Today presented the "Third Party Presidential Debate" - RUSSIA TODAY!

Blogs number in the thousands, they don't respect blackouts, and are quickly gaining loyalty while mainstream media loses theirs. The mainstream media has a lot of work to do to earn back the respectand loyalty they think they deserve especially to warrant a subscription to their service.

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Rate-Hike Redux

Today's Bank of Canada announcement has apparently caught many of the "experts" by surprise. I'm not sure why it's surprising, nothing has changed and therefore nothing has changed. Alongside the Bank of Canada's underwhelming announcement comes a few reports showing the true state of the Canadian economy.

The bank of Canada is having a hard time keeping their story straight. Even though the last few quarters of economic activity have not followed what-so-ever their predictions they still make the claim that it has. It's ridiculous, but alas when you look at world events and the pathetic reality TV of political debates - ridiculous is really just a theme that continues to be played upon.

It gets even more ridiculous however, as the media seizes upon the BoC's increased growth outlook which has been contrary to what major firms are predicting. So what's the reason? Well the BoC explains...
As for hiking slightly this year's growth projection, the bank said that was due to revised methodology recently adopted by Statistics Canada, which bumped up growth in the second quarter one-tenth of a point to 1.9 per cent.
This has been a repeated theme over the last decade in western nations. They revise the methodology then show you fancy charts showing "growth". The gains made by these revisions themselves though continue to dwindle as they divorce further and further from reality. The claim made is that the "utility" remains constant and shouldn't represent quality. Essentially this means that: Should you have to buy dog food because you can't afford steak, you haven't lost anything because you are still getting the same amount of dog food as you used to get of steak. Obviously this example is exaggerated.

Now, as I have been explaining.. Canada has a "housing conundrum" which I don't believe is being portrayed properly or seriously by the media. Canada's problem is not just a simple problem with household debt, or a housing bubble, Canada has a debt feedback loop in which our economic growth is being supplemented by our debt addiction. Since the availability of loans is based on projected future growth we are seriously fooling ourselves into how well we think our economy is doing when in fact all we are doing is borrowing from the future to attempt to keep our heads above water in the present.

When you look at the U.S. prior to 2008, which is where our current household debt levels are comparable too; the U.S. was in the midst of an economic boom (albeit a fake boom propagated itself by cheap money). What's important about this time though is that U.S. GDP was well above the 1-2% level western countries are dealing with now. So why isn't Canada's cheap money policy having the same effect?

Exports remain low

"The bank continues to project that the expansion will be driven mainly by growth in consumption and business investment," but that housing activity will slow and exports are expected to remain below pre-recession levels until the first half of 2014.
So if our exports continue to remain depressed, where is the money coming from for business investment and consumption? You guessed it: debt. So, it is a bit of an oxymoron that the the Bank of Canada is predicting that consumption will resume at current levels and are also calling for an interest-rate hike "sometime in the future". The BoC's interest-rate hike talk is toothless, they know better than anyone that the debt is needed to continue convincing Canada it's not in the same condition as other western nations. This is exactly what the major western consumption based nations were doing prior to 2008, it's why they are having debt issues now. Canada isn't any different from these nations, we're just late to the party.

Quality of life index shows steep drop in recession’s aftermath
Study finds Canadians aren’t feeling economic growth in their daily lives
House prices fall, residents struggle with mortgage rules: study

You know how economists often adjust their data "for inflation"? I propose that a new standard is also required "adjusted for easing". Reports of jobs, economic growth, and the like today are completely meaningless when not presented alongside the deepening debt occurring at the same time (call it the "cost of recovery"). It's no surprise people are not "feeling economic growth", because 1-2% growth in face of the rapid rate in which government and consumer's are getting into debt really points towards negative growth. The investment to get growth is far outweighing the return.

In response to Carney's announcement, the Canadian dollar predictably rose:

Dollar Reaction

Canada’s dollar erased a loss after the decision. The currency was little changed at 99.24 cents per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after falling as much as 0.5 percent before the announcement. One Canadian dollar buys $1.0077.
This is the real reason the bank can not raise rates, and why it is powerless to prevent a debt collapse within Canada. As before simply talking about a rate-hike results in a stronger dollar and so actually following through with this action would represent a complete decoupling with the U.S. and Canada is not yet positioned for such a move. On top of the feedback GDP/debt loop, we would also see what little exports we have left become unaffordable for the currency war money printing countries almost overnight. The weakened state of these countries has become overly obvious to the point that the slightest hiccup in policy will be bringing down the whole house of cards.

Conclusion

There is no rate-hike in the foreseeable future so long as QE3 reigns and trade remains unstable. Canada requires it's massive consumer debt commitment to fill in the holes left by this drop, but it won't last. If new revenue doesn't come soon the BoC will have no choice but to stand by and watch as our housing bubble finally comes crashing down, rate-hikes or not. You can take that to the bank.

Click here to recommend this post on progressivebloggers.ca and help other people find this information.

Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Growth Expectation Nullification

So, would you mind if I take a moment for myself? Being a simple blogger and amateur trend forecaster, all I really have to provide you any reason to continue reading this blog and my take on current trends about Canadian and World events is to have some sort of a track record.

I came across a couple of articles today:

Don’t expect Canada’s housing market to have U.S.-style meltdown
Carney’s track record: Not as good as one might think 

These are really great examples of "news", if you read my blog you already know everything contained within these posts. However, I'd like to highlight a few points.

From the first article:
There won’t be a rate hike – not yet, anyway. But the betting among some Carney watchers is that the bank governor will drop his implicit projection of higher rates soon, or at least modify the bank’s now-familiar pledge of “some modest withdrawal” of rock-bottom rates and monetary stimulus.
Mr. Carney is facing an unusually uneasy global economic environment. China’s potent economy is slowing. Europe’s debt crisis continues to fester. And while U.S. prospects are looking up – most notably in housing – the uncertainty surrounding the November election and the looming fiscal cliff have economists and investors on edge.
But it is the home front that is probably keeping Mr. Carney up at night. For the first time in five years, he has a major domestic problem to fret about – housing.
It was inevitable. When the average price of a home in Vancouver hit $1-million, it was pretty clear that prices had finally outstripped the ability of most buyers to pay.
And yet debt, particularly mortgage debt, continues to rise. Canadians are suddenly flirting with the same debt danger zone that triggered real estate crashes in the U.S. and Britain. New figures from Statistics Canada show that households are carrying a record level of debt relative to disposable income – 163.4 per cent in the second quarter, up from 161.7 per cent at the end of last year.
 Despite the Bank of Canada’s international reputation for prescience, its calls suggest it’s struggling, like all central banks, to figure out the correct course in challenging economic conditions.
Back in April, I wrote a post 'Canada's fantasy economic outlook is at odds with reality'. Here's my favorite part:
The interest rate fear monger

Mark Carney has been in the news a lot lately preaching about the
"inevitable" interest rate hike. I've already written a post on why I think he's bluffing and as long as those fundamentals remain true we will not see an interest rate hike. The fundamentals may even be worse than I originally thought as it appears that mere talk of a rate hike results in stronger Canadian dollar. That's the "free market" for you: central banks making announcements and the people thinking they mean something important.
Talk can net big results, and the amount of talk Carney has been doing I believe is to drive fear. He can not in reality raise interest rates as I've pointed out, however the 'fear' of rising interest rates is what I'm betting he is banking on. I now strongly believe that the interest rate hype is meant to illicit a response from consumers in hopes that they get their debt under control themselves as the central bank can not make any meaningful changes to it physically. Canada is stuck between a rock and a hard-place. High energy prices are driving up the cost of living which is being supported by consumer spending that's fueled by cheap lending which is leveraged on an overvalued housing market. This problem then compounds when you consider that a large portion of Canada's anticipated GDP is based on this consumer spending. To add insult to injury the effects of peak oil on oilsands production that I've been telling you would happen are now happening.
I always wanted to say this: "You heard it here first, folks!". Anyway, there you go.

One step closer to reality

As we move further and further along I really am finding it hard to blog about our present condition. To me, this is all plainly obvious. It was obvious back in April. It was obvious last year. It's been obvious since the current crisis began.

I really would think that by now, the problems would be obvious to pretty well everyone. Then, my hopes get demolished as I read crap like this.

The authors conclusion?
"Given the current economic data and low inflation, the prudent move for Mark Carney is to lower the overnight rate by 25 basis points."
Seriously folks, is nobody noticing that world-wide: low interest rates and stimulus are doing jack shit? Keep in mind this suggestion is coming after Flaherty "tightened" the mortgage rules. Still think everything is going as planned? That the housing collapse can be attributed to Flaherty's "tightening"?

What you are seeing play out before your eyes is the "housing conundrum" I also described back in April. Now, I ask you oh great mainstream economists: What does it mean when the government sends a signal to tighten monetary policy and the central bank in response makes the money cheaper? Maybe this would describe it:
Canadians are now out of wiggle room. The Canadian economy is now literally at war with itself.
Canadian authorities are stepping up oversight of the nation’s housing market even as lenders such as Bank of Nova Scotia warn that tougher rules could threaten the economic recovery.
So we're afraid the housing market will stop growth? Well that would would be bad but...
Policy makers, including Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, have said that parts of Canada’s housing market have become overvalued as consumers add to record debt levels, encouraged by some of the lowest mortgage rates in decades.
So we're also afraid of more growth? ok...
Scotiabank (BNS) chief executive officer Richard Waugh warned about making reforms to CMHC that could have “unintended consequences” and cause the market to slow too much.
Oh I see, we want the overvalued housing market to grow, but not too much.
It must have not grown, too much.

Now, mixed within the two articles I linked at first are various remarks by Carney about our sound financial system, etc, etc. The usual clap-trap. Why the hell would anyone believe this stuff? It's all a confidence game folks! I hear people constantly refer to our deposit insurance corporation like it's some sort of demi-god. You know, folks, the U.S. had one of those too. The FDIC. Guest what? It went bankrupt. Viva-La-Bailouts! So how's ours doing?

Well...
According to the CDIC's 2010 Annual Report, CDIC protects $590 billion CAD in total eligible deposits, and has $1.95 billion CAD in assets to meet insurance claims.[4] This amount represents 0.33% of total eligible deposits. The CDIC is also authorized to borrow up to $17 billion if necessary from the federal government or the financial markets, and may request further funds from Parliament.
So it can meet 0.33% and afterward can borrow money or needs a bailout. Super.

Are you starting to get the picture folks? Prepare prepare prepare!

What's to come

Interest rates will be going up, but if it happens it will be in concert with the same sort of announcement in emerging markets. The currency war that's currently in full force will eventually see one of these countries completely reverse their interest rate policy. Appreciation of their currency will shortly follow. The only markets really in a position to attempt this maneuver are the emerging markets. Or rather, I believe they are attempting to position themselves so that they can do such a maneuver. I believe Canada is strategically trying to predict who the winner is going to be, and right now all of their money is on the emerging markets horse.

Now, I'd like to be clear here as it can be confusing. Decoupling from the USD and no longer using it as a reserve currency are very different. What it means is that our currency would greatly appreciate above theirs creating a large trade imbalance. This would become necessary if the emerging markets were to do the same action if we intend to trade with them as the same trade imbalance the U.S. would experience would also be experienced by us. It is this action which will trigger the switch from deflation into hyperinflation as the USDs world wide rapidly lose value as one by one they are sent back to the U.S. in a snowball effect that will quite likely reshape the world. When this happens, anyone still on a USD standard and pairing their currency to the USD will experience the same increases to cost the U.S. is going to experience. Europe too, the Euro's fucked. Exponential growth is dead, and there are no more frauds or bubbles left beyond the USD itself to grow ourselves out of this mess.

Canada's GDP is going to start taking hits as the housing credit drys up. Lower and lower interest rates won't bring an infinite amount of debt, Canadians are tapped. This GDP interruption is going to then come back around full circle, hurting expectations,and voila: Canada's own period of great deflation will have begun.

Click here to recommend this post on progressivebloggers.ca and help other people find this information.

Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

The Omnibus Ballet - Act II

Here we go again, another omnibus budget bill. The second portion of the implementation of the 2012 budget. I never finished my analysis of the budget, because the situation we find ourselves in changes much faster than I can possibly analyze a massive document such as that. Not that my lack of interest in completing that analysis really matters, as bad economic news can really sound great depending on the wording. Bad news is good news when horrible news is the norm.

Here is a great example:

Canadian Dollar Falls Most Since May as Rate Outlook Eases

Doesn't that headline sound great? Our dollar is going down (exactly what we think we want) and the rate outlook is easing. Everyone loves easy, and so an easing outlook must be good right?

Here's a few excerpts:
Oil fell as forecasts from bellwether companies signaled slowing economic growth.
The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart by the most since May as a lower-than- forecast advance in consumer prices added to speculation the central bank will place less emphasis on raising policy rates.
“Nothing firm came out of the EU summit, and fiscal cliff talk isn’t helping things,” Thomas Molloy, chief dealer at FX Solutions LLC, an online currency-trading company in Saddle River, New Jersey, said in a telephone interview. “It’s generally risk off.”
The so-called fiscal cliff refers to $607 billion in U.S. federal spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in January unless the U.S. Congress acts. The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner.
Government bonds fell, pushing the benchmark 10-year note up 0.05 percentage point, or five basis points, to end the week at 1.84 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent notes maturing in June 2022 fell 44 cents to C$107.95. 

Canadian government bonds have lost 0.4 percent this month, on pace for the worst monthly performance since March, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch Index data.
“The weak CPI data will have an impact on how the Bank of Canada telegraphs its forward-looking language,” Mazen Issa, Canada macro strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank’s TD Securities unit, said in a phone interview. “The data shows that on a year-over-year basis, inflation will be fairly benign and the growth outlook won’t change between now and next week -- we’re still expecting to see below-trend growth.” 
Here would be my choice for a headline: "Canadian dollar weakens against USD despite QE3 as global growth continues to falter".

Now it's interesting that the budget is being released in 2 separate implementations. Why? Well if you remember, the budget came out during the very first month I started this particular blog. What's happened since then? Well, we weren't in a housing bubble, then we were worried about interest rate hikes, then all of a sudden we were in a housing bubble, interest rate hikes were imminent, and now that housing bubble is collapsing (albeit slowly, but the speed will pick up - and no it won't stay in Vancouver and Toronto) and the interest rate hikes never happened, hmm. Canada's entire economic outlook has done a complete 180 degree flip. The specifics of the crisis are far far worse than those risks outlined in the budget going forward. The government has put this collapse at the feet of Flaherty's tweaks to mortgage rules but the reality of the situation is pretty damn obvious.

Part one of the budget was implemented while our economy was supposedly going up up up, and part two is being implemented while we struggle to grow. Both parts are to implement a plan that was revealed shortly after Q1 data was made available. This omnibus bill is unprecedented in size and scale in Canadian history, it makes sweeping changes, but based on what? It seems to me that a budget should reflect current economic conditions, and also attempt to project future trends. This of course leaves only two options towards their train of thought: Either the budget is based on complete nonsense, or for the entire year the government has been playing dumb about where they knew the general direction of the global economy is going. Naturally, it was the second, not the first.

In general, it seems to me the entire budget is essentially an implementation plan to prepare Canada for some sort of new position with Asia. I've written about this situation here. Since I've written that piece Canada has demonstrated an increasing realignment particularly with, but not limited to, China. I've noted before that our housing bubble was largely influenced by foreign investors and speculators. It should be no surprise our housing collapse is coming at the same time that foreign growth collapses and remember, even that growth data is exaggerated.

The size of the bill itself is interesting, I've been scrolling through it and for instance I find pages of "changes" in which the words "this Part" are replaced with "this Act". Seriously. Being that the size is such a point of contention amongst opposition parties, why include fluff and simple corrections like this at the same time? This lends to the argument that the size has been bloated on purpose. Why? Because its the size of a telephone book and it's pretty easy to hide a single Trojan horse in a document this size. I'd love to read it, but I'd have to quit my job or at least go on leave to have the time to do so.

What's been pointed at in the media as changes brought in by this budget bill are all listed in plain English in the summation at the top which in brief describes the changes in the specific divisions. Nobody is reading this thing, but the changes going on around us point to a major realignment towards Asian interests - this should be no secret.

The speed of implementation has to do with how little time remains before global economic collapse and the huge demand for energy in China and India. There can be no objections, this is why China will be able to challenge Canadian governments through a supposed independent trade body, as accompanies all free trade agreements. The legalities of our new relationship with China are not being done in public or with the Canadian citizen's knowledge, all the budget does is provide the infrastructure to carry out our new commitments.

For those who say the effect of a loss of sovereignty is being exaggerated, I've shown before not only that the dangers are very real but are already occurring in existing trade deals such as NAFTA.

Our realignment seems to be timely with pissing contests between major powers. About a week ago Russia declared they will not be renewing the nuclear arms treaty with the U.S. only to now a week later put on the largest nuclear demonstration for the world since the days of the Soviet Union. The war ducks are lining up, and energy is at the center of the conflicts - have no doubt.

Chain's fake growth collapsing is a phenomenon Canadians should be studying. It's very similar to what's being promoted here in Canada as the solution: a massive expansion so large that we will have to be relying on temporary foreign workers just to keep operating. The reason being given for the temporary foreign workers is that there is going to be a skilled labor shortage due to the baby boomer generation retiring. There is some truth to that but when put in the context of exponential growth and the coming demands that will be made of Canada - it's really just a drop in the bucket.

Let me ask you this, why must an economy grow? The answer is fairly simple: to proportionally service a growing population. In other words, if we want to continue growing the world population, we have to grow the collective wealth of the world to a point where there is something for everyone. If you scale down to the national level, Canada seems to be saying that it's required growth outweighs the Canadian population, either that, or they are saying a lot of Canadians will either have no job, or a low paying one. Neither scenario seems to be prosperous for Canada.

There is a piece of information missing as to why we would want to, or need to, grow our economy far beyond what can be serviced by our population. However, when you look at the requirements and size of the Asian populations it makes a lot more sense, doesn't it? When you consider the added overhead of a whole whack of "temporary" citizens workers, the infrastructure required to service their needs, how much net-benefit exactly will Canadians be receiving from their non-renewable resources? If the reason we are exploiting them is "jobs", whose jobs are we talking about? It's not like there is some inheritance waiting for Canadian citizens from these resources - if you are not involved in the process of their exploitation then you have no more benefit from these resources than Joe "Temporary" Blow.

In short, Canada is expanding it's industry far beyond our population's ability to operate it because it's an economy being slowly designed to service a population much larger than ours. This supplementation of Canadian revenue isn't new, the U.S. has been fulfilling this role, and since their economy tanked Canadian debt has been filling in the gap left by them. Our government has publicly recognized this gap and thus we need a new sugar daddy as Canadians can only have so much debt before that in itself brings our own house of cards tumbling down.

The last time an omnibus bill was tabled, the opposition parties put on an omnibus voting marathon ballet. Clearly, that didn't work, not even a little bit. I don't think this time around there are any opportunities to halt this tactic of obfuscation and confusion. Any opportunity was lost when the first one passed without even so much as a modified comma, I expect this one to be steamrolled through too.

Click here to recommend this post on progressivebloggers.ca and help other people find this information.

Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Katz Man and Robbin'

Oh, Daryl Katz, you never let me down with your shenanigans. Today the Katz Group was absent from the latest round of public discussion on the arena and as I sit back and think about the evolution of this negotiation I just have to laugh.

Hey! Remember when the narrative of "Katz wants to do something nice for the city", was popular? Yea, me too; those were good times. The belief he was going out of his way to do something beneficial for the city was comforting, and the early promises of upfront investment were appealing. Edmonton was roped in to the opportunity of a lifetime.

Slowly though, this narrative has eroded and the true vision is revealed, a risk-free-heavily padded bottom line. Nothing else will do.

Today in the council meeting, finally some real proper questions were being asked and as they should. It's perfectly reasonable to ask how someone who doesn't bother to show up to negotiate and engages in backroom on the fly deals could ever be committed to a 35year deal. Of course, along this line, the one question I still don't hear being asked is what we're going to do with this arena in 35 years.

I once again feel the need to bring up the fact Rexall is only 40 years old. In 35 years when this arena is supposedly paid off, will we need another one? Are we saying the lifespan of an arena - one of the most energy intensive complexes to build - is really only 30-40 years? I know people say well "this one will be done right", and "this one will be state-of-the-art". If we thought Rexall was done "wrong", why did we build it? why is it still in operation? What came first: Rexall? Or the bad neighborhood of 118ave? I'm pretty sure Rexall did, 118ave used to be nice, hell it's called "Alberta Ave" for a reason.

I'm going to be incredibly honest here and say exactly what I think: Edmonton is spoiled. We are the poster-child of the disposable society, to the point we view an entire arena as disposable because we just don't like it that much anymore. The surroundings of Rexall fit the culture that attends the functions there. As an example: Do you believe that painted up oiler fans, sweaty and smelly after a game are going to hop on over to the upper-class Lux Steakhouse afterward for a bite? Think they would even be let in? We have two stadiums and both are the center of the two worst neighborhoods in the city, I don't think that's coincidence.

I'm not trying to be insulting to hockey fans, all I'm trying to say is "sports culture" and "night on the town culture", are very different beasts. I assume most think about a revitalized downtown (the original selling point of the arena if you remember) as a "night on the town" environment. A sports complex isn't going to create that, and neither is another office tower with the city as it's main tenant. We have tons of office towers, with plenty of existing space for lease. I don't think Telus would have kept their HQ in Edmonton if we had had a new arena.

Over the last years the city has been debating this arena, the global economy has continued to worsen, yet the city projects growth and revenue as though none of these things are happening. A recent Bank of Canada survey found much of corporate Canada has a negative outlook on the Canadian economy for the reasons I've been laying out on this blog. These reasons are becoming quite apparent now as more and more of the power structure admits a domino like effect of collapsing economies is probable. The Canadian housing bubble is admitted to be collapsing.

Edmonton, I really must insist you re-evaluate the long-term needs and goals of this city. Daryl Katz tried to pull a fast one on us with a massive information-less propaganda campaign, but now that the euphoria has worn off and the real questions are starting to be asked we see exactly how far along this deal really is. It's nowhere, and was never anywhere. Everything up until now has been rhetoric and hype meant to secure a commitment before anyone read the small text.

One final note I have, is that when it comes to Katz's request for an additional $6M dollar subsidy on the basis that he will be losing money, he may not be wrong necessarily. In my very first post on the arena back on my other blog, I stated essentially that Katz had to get this deal through before the true state of the economy became apparent. As things continue to collapse, food prices continue to go up, and outlooks continue to darken - profit projections based on pre-2008 growth are going to be a lot harder to pass off as realistic. Because of this, I have no doubt that in maybe 5-10 years the arena will be hemorrhaging money - and we'll be paying for it. Looking at past finances doesn't give any clues as to the future when that future is relying on so many circumstances and events outside of our control. This is not to say I would support such a subsidy, I don't, to me what it says is "maybe Katz (and apparently other NHL heads) needs to find a business model that works - being a businessman and all". We might really like what it is a business does, but a failed model is a failed model, unsustainable and prone to collapse sooner or later - when the handouts stop coming.

Click here to recommend this post on progressivebloggers.ca and help other people find this information.

Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Ready or not; here it comes

Canada's real economic situation is becoming quite apparent. Alberta's deficit situation is looking grim, and household debt is 'worse than expected'. The general outlook of Canada's economy is quickly turning.

Today in response to some of the news posts I put out on Twitter, someone replied:
then if people stop spending the economy will slow, there's really no easy solution.
I would suggest that until we properly address and understand the problem there can be no solution. A solution can not be implemented unless we know, precisely, what we are trying to solve. A solution must set goals of what the solution is trying to achieve.

Today's so called solutions don't clearly spell out the problem they are trying to solve, nor clearly explain the problems present. Generalized goals such as "jobs", "housing value", etc are simply functions of a larger whole which is not being addressed.

I've always tried to be honest about what a real solution would entail. The solution of course is based on the understanding of a systemic problem and the goal of getting rid of this fraud and fake growth. It means from our current point of view that a large portion of the economy must essentially collapse, but the flip side of this coin is it's going to collapse anyway. This fact should be becoming quite apparent as ever increasing amounts of stimulus are pumped in to the economy with really very little return (or negative return really) on the investment.

The problem we need to solve is, "how do we properly manage and control this collapse with minimal destruction?". If you believe that the economy can return to what we've come to know prior to 2008 as 'normal' even in face of problems such as peak oil and multiple generations of debt servitude without even considering the costs the generation paying this debt will itself require then you are being naive.

Canada will very soon be joining the reality the rest of the world deals with and I post about everyday. The worst is yet to come and as such my suggestion is prepare for the worst as the time for discussion and implementation of large-scale solutions is far past now. Back in April, few people wanted to take our debt and housing problem seriously but now expect it to dominate our headlines along with Chinese espionage and continually dismal returns on resource development as prices sky-rocket due to infinite quantitative easing.

If the problem we're trying to solve is "how do we make things like they were before 2008?" - there is no solution. That era of growth was largely based on fraud, it's never coming back. We can either look forward and seriously decide what sort of system we do want, or we can claw on to the revisionist history of returns seemingly coming out of thin air. They were, so what are we going to do about it?

Click here to recommend this post on progressivebloggers.ca and help other people find this information.

Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

The thin red (and white) line

I have a lot of commentary about things I'm currently seeing: news articles, statements, opinions. Events are moving really fast now, and it's hella confusing - don't ya think?

Let's start with the United States. Yes, their unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%, below an over-hyped and probably already doctored floor of 8%. Of course, it's only cost already an obscene amount of "stimulus", and now the QE3 commitment to print until the employment rate comes down to 5.5%. What a deal! This way a few more (but not nearly enough) people will have jobs to start paying that absurd debt down. It's sort of similar to the way a pimp might give a crack addicted woman (or man) a job for the purpose of paying them back. The federal reserve of course wants everyone working, especially now - there's a debt to pay people so get to work! Wal-Mart greeters are needed at a location near you.

Obama? Well during the debate he considered the multi-generational debt servitude a "small emergency measure" to prevent the collapse of the economy. I personally would have added that it's the economy George W. Bush once referred to as a "house of cards", but I digress.

The presidential election has (from what I've seen in my social feeds) brought back the debate of whether or not Republican vs Democrat are actually any different from each other. Typically the presidential nominees are used as the basis for comparison. It's really not the right question to be asking though. Everybody is different. (mostly) Everybody has their own and different ideas.

The real question to be asking is, "does the president have the ability to act on their ideas?". Do they? Or are they simply carrying out the same high level demands from the same money powers? For those reading this who say yes, there is clearly a difference between the two - I'll try and explain it like this. There are two sorts of issues, important issues and people issues. People issues are important to the people. Politicians and parties will tend to vary widely on these, and this of course aids the illusion that what's occurring represents democracy.


J.F.K. talks about the military industrial complex

When you look at the money and the power circles around these people, you see the same names. The bills they sign are rarely read, and produced by third parties. Politicians at this point are nothing more than the face of implementation, and everyone has their own style of implementation.

What do you think has more weight? Obama, his golf games, and the rare policy change. Fancy titles on motions that move funds around? Or do you think it was the trillions in stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve who makes policy "independent" of the government? The government's job? Make tax collection look fun. In some ways however, this does work in Obama's favor. Those putting high gas prices at his feet, or even the problems in general are not seeing the bigger picture here.

"What does any of this have to do with us up here in Canada?" one might be asking. We're walking a thin red line right in the middle of a brewing conflict. Canada seems to be all over the map in regards to policies friendly towards the U.S. or emerging markets (China). We want them, then we don't, then we do. Intelligence reports are coming out all the time about Chinese espionage at the same time we're doing major business deals with them. Seriously folks, when is the last time you saw intelligence reports headlining mainstream news? I'm not talking about government fear-mongering terrorist alerts I'm talking about specific warnings right from CSIS. We are smack-dab in the middle of the Chinese-U.S.-everyone else currency war and with all of the "tough China talk" you can bet trade wars are not far behind.

Click here to recommend this post on progressivebloggers.ca and help other people find this information.

Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.