Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Canada's "economic engine" runs out of gas

Well now, the moment we've all been waiting for is finally arriving.

Tough choices ahead as plunging oil bites into Alberta's revenue: finance minister
Alberta’s finance [financial bullshit] minister warned Wednesday of tough choices in the coming months as the plunging price of the province’s heavy oil takes a big bite out of provincial revenue. 
 “We did receive some updated numbers from our energy department about where things are headed,” Horner said. “I’m very, very concerned about where those numbers are headed. The differential is not closing in.” 
“They’re going to have to ensure we’re being very aggressive in reigning in and restraining our spending,” he said. “For us to meet our targets, that’s going to be what we’re talking about in the next couple of weeks.”
This right here is a perfect demonstration of the great Albertan financial conundrum of which our ministers of bullshit, spin, and fantasy relish in. More spending cuts?

Edmonton to outpace national growth, says economist
“Construction, trade and personal services are expected to create about 6,000 new jobs over the next 12 months,” he said. “Even as conditions in the international environment slow, the city and region’s annual growth for 2013, when adjusted for inflation, should be in the range of 3.5% to 4.5% compared to the expected annual growth of 2.4% for Canada.”

Housing prices and sales are expected to grow by at least two per cent in 2013.

Throughout 2012, Edmonton saw outstanding growth and a strong economy due to population growth, employment growth and a robust construction sector outlook, Rose said.
Growth is such a misnomer here. Construction? Most of this in Alberta is government funded. People moving here? Well we all know how that turns out, especially when the government already has to borrow so that they can construct the infrastructure needed for the current population (let alone those who are not here yet). Maybe Edmonton's economist should look forward instead of backward, for Alberta (the region) 2012 isn't an indicator what-so-ever of what's to come. Alas, though, when it comes to "economists" the only thing they see is what's already happened. With the way the global economy is right now, historical data provides nothing in terms of reliable data to make projections on. This is why I don't make projections based on historical data, I make projections based on trends that I see across multiple different formats of data.

(PS: Alberta Government: I will provide you financial forecasts for 1/2 the salary you currently pay your minister of financial bullshit, just let me know if you're interested.)

Of course it's not just Alberta, finances across Canada are all falling into debt spirals.
Alarmed by the deficit at McGill University’s Health Centre, which has spiraled out of control, the Quebec government has named an overseer to chaperon the province’s second biggest heath establishment, a move one step short of trusteeship.
All hail the overseer!

Come on Canadians and Albertans, lets put an end to this stupidity. There is no perfect forecast or prediction, anyone who makes forecasts might sometimes be wrong - but these people are always wrong and will never admit to it Whether it's oilsands, the F35, Canada's GDP, or the housing market; what they engage in is either complete incompetence, or more likely: deceit.

Canadian Trends: Canada's fantasy economic outlook is at odds with reality
Canadian Trends: Canada's "skilled businessman" shortage
Canadian Trends: Oilsands Prosperity is a Lie
Canadian Trends: Pinning hopes on donkeys
Canadian Trends: Our small potatoes bring all the boys to the yard; damn rights, they're better than yours
Canadian Trends: A Crisis of Accountability

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.

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